NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 3 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 3: San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
If not for a dramatic come-from-behind victory against the hapless Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, the New York Giants would likely be the largest underdogs on the Week 3 slate. In their season opener, the Giants were shutout in a 40-0 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. In Week 2, New York trailed 20-0 at the half, but secured a miraculous 31-28 victory as a result of ultra-conservative play-calling by their opponent. Entering this Thursday Night Football matchup, the Giants rank 23rd in EPA/play on offense and 28th in EPA/play on defense.
In stark contrast, the San Francisco 49ers have been dominant in their first two regular season contests, outscoring their opponents 60-30 and out-gaining their opponents by 131 yards. San Francisco ranks 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 3rd in defensive EPA/play ahead of kickoff on Thursday.
If there is any concern in this matchup, it is related to the uniqueness of and his ability to make plays with his legs. However, reports from local San Francisco media this week suggest that defending Jones’ scramble ability is the defense’s top priority. New York will also be without star running back in this matchup, which further restricts their offensive capabilities while enlarging their offensive line issues. There is a reason that the 49ers are favored by 10 points in this one – trust them to get the job done at home here.
Week 3 Survivor Fade: Philadelphia Eagles
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
In Week 3, the Philadelphia Eagles catch two of our red flags – 1) playing on Monday Night Football; 2) playing on the road with a poor defense.
When healthy, the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, they are currently missing a number of important contributors, including linebacker Nakobe Dean, cornerback Avonte Maddox. Safety Reed Blankenship and cornerback James Bradberry are also potential absences after both players missed their Week 2 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. On top of their injury issues defensively, Philadelphia will also be using a new punter on Monday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which only further increases the range of potential outcomes on special teams – introducing more variance into the equation is not ideal for the team that is favored.
Though Philadelphia will enter play 2-0, they were out-gained by 131 yards in their season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles and struggled to consistently get stops in Week 2 – allowing to throw for 364 passing yards and four touchdowns. The Minnesota Vikings were missing two starting offensive linemen, but the Eagles still managed only two sacks for the game.
The Buccaneers have plenty of holes on their roster, on both sides of the ball, but they have taken care of the football and showed a surprising amount of discipline with only 10 penalties through two games. has taken advantage of two favorable matchups to begin the season and ranks 10th in EPA + CPOE among qualified quarterbacks. Tampa Bay is unlikely to beat themselves in this matchup, which makes them dangerous.
Image Credit: Getty Images
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